Sao Paulo 2-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Sao Paulo take on Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sao Paulo welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 23 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.73 xG and Cuiaba 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.822 / defence 1.034 | Cuiaba attack 0.628 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 0.841 / away 0.985. Data: 5 Sao Paulo games / 3 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 33% | Draw 39% | Cuiaba 28%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Cuiaba 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.37 combined xG gives a 16% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 33% | Draw 39% | Cuiaba 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 25% | xG Sao Paulo 0.73 / Cuiaba 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.822 / def 1.034 | Cuiaba attack 0.628 / def 1.058 | league avg home 0.841 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cuiaba xG
25%
BTTS
40%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 23 June 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba part of?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 33% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Sao Paulo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (0.82) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 26.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
39%
2.58
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
1.37
0.64
Cuiaba xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.08
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.4 | 16.2 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.9%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.64 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cuiaba have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Cuiaba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2024, when Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sao Paulo and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 6, as Sao Paulo and Cuiaba drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.73 xG and Cuiaba 0.64 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sao Paulo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Cuiaba attack 0.63 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 33% | Draw 39% | Cuiaba 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 40% and landed. Over 3.5 was 5% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.