Sao Paulo 2-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sao Paulo (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sao Paulo face Atletico Paranaense.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MorumBIS plays host to Sao Paulo versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sao Paulo have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sao Paulo at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Atletico Paranaense away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Sao Paulo's favour (1.60 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sao Paulo have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Atletico Paranaense managing 1 and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jul 2024, ended Sao Paulo 2–1 Atletico Paranaense — a Sao Paulo win.
The head-to-head data gives Sao Paulo an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Sao Paulo — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 46% versus Atletico Paranaense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 48% | Atletico Paranaense 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.74 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.182 / defence 0.936 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.910 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 0.994. Data: built from Sao Paulo's last 70 games and Atletico Paranaense's last 69.
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 59% | Draw 23% | Atletico Paranaense 18%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 1.71 | Draw 4.27 | Atletico Paranaense 5.55. The model has a clear lean to Sao Paulo (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sao Paulo 50% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Paranaense 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 59% | Draw 23% | Atletico Paranaense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Sao Paulo 1.74 / Atletico Paranaense 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.182 / def 0.936 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.910 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.358 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Atletico Paranaense xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense FAQs
What time does Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 59% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 1.18x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.91x) against Sao Paulo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Sao Paulo's last 70 games and Atletico Paranaense's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.27
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.58
0.85
Atletico Paranaense xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
31.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.85 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Sao Paulo have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 30W 17D 22L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 23W 21D 25L from 69 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Sao Paulo against 1.30 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sao Paulo have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 35 home games (24W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 10D 17L from their last 35 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.22 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Sao Paulo (Home) vs Atletico Paranaense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Form FAQs
What form are Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 30W 17D 22L in their last 69 games (1.55 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 23W 21D 25L in their last 69 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Sao Paulo's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 2.20 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 23 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won Sao Paulo 4-0 Atletico Paranaense on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sao Paulo have won 5, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 July 2026: Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 43%, Atletico Paranaense 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sao Paulo) and 31% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 46% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 31% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 66% of Atletico Paranaense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Atletico Paranaense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1 at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.74 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.85 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 59% | Draw 23% | Atletico Paranaense 18%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 48%, Atletico Paranaense 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.55 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.