Remo 2-3 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Remo host Coritiba at Estadio Evandro Almeida in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 August 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Remo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Remo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Evandro Almeida, Remo have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Remo at 1.20 PPG versus Coritiba's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Remo, 1 for Coritiba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Coritiba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Remo in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Remo 58% versus Coritiba 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 50% | Coritiba 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.34 xG and Coritiba 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.948 / defence 1.082 | Coritiba attack 0.853 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.156. Data: 24 Remo games / 24 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 40% | Draw 32% | Coritiba 27%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Coritiba 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Remo at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Remo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Remo 60% | Coritiba 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Evandro Almeida • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 40% | Draw 32% | Coritiba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Remo 1.34 / Coritiba 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.948 / def 1.082 | Coritiba attack 0.853 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Remo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Coritiba kick off?
Remo vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
What was the final score in Remo vs Coritiba?
Remo 2 - 3 Coritiba.
Where is Remo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
What competition is Remo vs Coritiba part of?
Remo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 40% chance of winning, Coritiba a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Remo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Remo 0W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Remo and Coritiba in?
Remo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Coritiba (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.95) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Remo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
40%
2.47
32%
3.08
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Remo xG
Total xG
2.41
1.07
Coritiba xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Remo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Remo and 1.07 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Remo's recent record stands at 5W 8D 11L from 24 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Remo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 8L across 24 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coritiba by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Remo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Remo have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coritiba's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Remo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Remo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Remo have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Remo at home or Coritiba away?
Remo's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Remo at home: 1.27 PPG; Coritiba away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Remo and Coritiba runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
0
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Coritiba?
From 2 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, Coritiba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Remo 2-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Remo 64%, Coritiba 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Remo) and 46% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 36%; Coritiba in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Remo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Remo's recent matches and 36% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Remo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Remo's recent games and 46% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Remo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Remo have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Remo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Remo 2-3 at Estadio Evandro Almeida, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.34 xG and Coritiba 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Coritiba outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 40% | Draw 32% | Coritiba 27%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Remo 50%, Coritiba 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Remo's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coritiba arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Remo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.