RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Gremio meet at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Gremio have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours RB Bragantino, who have won 4 of the last 9 meetings against Gremio — a 4D 1W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives RB Bragantino a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 52% versus Gremio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Gremio 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.46 xG and Gremio 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.950 / defence 0.956 | Gremio attack 0.740 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.151. Data: 60 RB Bragantino games / 60 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 33% | Gremio 18%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Gremio 5.56. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 50% | Gremio 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 33% | Gremio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG RB Bragantino 1.46 / Gremio 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.950 / def 0.956 | Gremio attack 0.740 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gremio xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Gremio kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Gremio kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Gremio part of?
RB Bragantino vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 49% chance of winning, Gremio a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both RB Bragantino and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
Record (9 meetings): RB Bragantino 4W | Draws 4 | Gremio 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Gremio in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.74x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
49%
2.03
33%
3.03
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
Gremio xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.81 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 11D 26L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 19W 17D 24L from 60 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.23 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 4W 9D 17L from 30 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Gremio in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Gremio have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Gremio away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.60 PPG; Gremio away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won 3-0 on 16 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Bragantino
4
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 5, Gremio have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 47%, Gremio 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RB Bragantino) and 47% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gremio in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 57% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 47% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Gremio tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gremio in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.46 xG and Gremio 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Gremio attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 33% | Gremio 18%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Gremio 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.33 PPG, Gremio 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.