RB Bragantino 2-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 3–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 53% versus Fortaleza EC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 47% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.80 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.140 / defence 1.015 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.159 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 0.928. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 RB Bragantino games / 55 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 54% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Fortaleza EC 4.35. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 30% | Fortaleza EC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 54% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG RB Bragantino 1.80 / Fortaleza EC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.140 / def 1.015 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.159 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.256 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 20 July 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
RB Bragantino 2 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 54% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Record (2 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.14) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.16x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.32
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.89
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
4%
26.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.09 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 20W 20D 15L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 20W 12D 23L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.31 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 3D 16L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.05 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 20W 20D 15L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 20W 12D 23L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fortaleza EC away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.59 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
6
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 48%, Fortaleza EC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (RB Bragantino) and 56% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 56% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 56% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Fortaleza EC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.80 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.16 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 54% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 47%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.45 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.