RB Bragantino 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to face RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RB Bragantino's home record at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fluminense are 0.90 PPG clear of RB Bragantino in recent Serie A fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for RB Bragantino, 2 for Fluminense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 57% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 52% | Fluminense 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.36 xG and Fluminense 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.105 / defence 1.367 | Fluminense attack 1.209 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Fluminense have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 RB Bragantino games / 75 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 44%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Fluminense 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 70% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG RB Bragantino 1.36 / Fluminense 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.105 / def 1.367 | Fluminense attack 1.209 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Fluminense xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 32% chance of winning, Fluminense a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.21x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
32%
3.16
24%
4.17
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
3.01
1.65
Fluminense xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.65 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 25W 25D 25L from 75 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 35W 16D 24L across 75 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.61 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 15W 14D 8L from 37 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 12W 8D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.33 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 25W 25D 25L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 35W 16D 24L in their last 75 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fluminense away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.59 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.19 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Fluminense have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 57%, Fluminense 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (RB Bragantino) and 38% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 38% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 38% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fluminense tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.36 xG and Fluminense 1.65 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.10 / defence 1.37 against Fluminense attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 44%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 52%, Fluminense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.33 PPG, Fluminense 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.