RB Bragantino 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to face RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's home record at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fluminense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward RB Bragantino. A 0.70 PPG lead over Fluminense (2.10 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fluminense, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
It is worth noting that Fluminense have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 51% versus Fluminense 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 46% | Fluminense 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 2.03 xG and Fluminense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.089 / defence 0.762 | Fluminense attack 0.996 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.046. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. RB Bragantino's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 RB Bragantino games / 65 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 65% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 13%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Fluminense 7.69. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Fluminense lead the H2H ledger, but RB Bragantino carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 20% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 65% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG RB Bragantino 2.03 / Fluminense 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.089 / def 0.762 | Fluminense attack 0.996 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Fluminense xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 65% chance of winning, Fluminense a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 4W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.09x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.00x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.56
13%
7.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.82
0.79
Fluminense xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
7.83
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
2%
59.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.79 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 24W 21D 20L from 65 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 19L across 65 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.72 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 15W 9D 7L from 31 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 11W 6D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 21D 20L in their last 65 games (1.43 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 33W 13D 19L in their last 65 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fluminense away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.74 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.26 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fluminense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Fluminense have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 45%, Fluminense 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (RB Bragantino) and 48% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fluminense in 32%; RB Bragantino have failed to score in 26% of games; Fluminense in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 39% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 48% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fluminense tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 2.03 xG and Fluminense 0.79 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.09 / defence 0.76 against Fluminense attack 1.00 / defence 1.35, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 65% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 13%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 46%, Fluminense 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.43 PPG, Fluminense 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.