RB Bragantino 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 October 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Flamengo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 70% versus Flamengo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 55% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.03 xG and Flamengo 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.140 / defence 1.451 | Flamengo attack 1.432 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.059. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.432 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 RB Bragantino games / 20 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 15% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 63%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Flamengo 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 80% | Flamengo 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 15% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG RB Bragantino 1.03 / Flamengo 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.140 / def 1.451 | Flamengo attack 1.432 / def 1.000 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Flamengo xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 15% chance of winning, Flamengo a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both RB Bragantino and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.14x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
15%
6.56
22%
4.53
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
3.23
2.20
Flamengo xG
6.56
15%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
11%
9.03
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
2%
59.28
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 2.20 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 7W 9D 4L from 20 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 6L across 20 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.50 PPG, Flamengo on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Flamengo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 7W 9D 4L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 12W 2D 6L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.22 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.89 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RB Bragantino at 78%, Flamengo at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RB Bragantino) and 56% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of RB Bragantino's games and 56% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of RB Bragantino's matches and 56% of Flamengo's.
Do RB Bragantino and Flamengo tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.03 xG and Flamengo 2.20 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.14 / defence 1.45 against Flamengo attack 1.43 / defence 1.00, drawn from 22/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 15% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 63%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 55%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.50 PPG, Flamengo 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.