RB Bragantino 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as RB Bragantino welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 July 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 3D 0L from 9 outings — a 2.33 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.11 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 1W 3D 0L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.33 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this season.
Cuiaba — All Games: 0W 4D 3L from 7 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cuiaba have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
RB Bragantino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.76 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 0.57). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 71% versus Cuiaba 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 71% | Cuiaba 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.33 xG and Cuiaba 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.317 / defence 1.270 | Cuiaba attack 0.673 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 0.920 / away 1.067. RB Bragantino carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 RB Bragantino games / 7 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 46% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 26%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Cuiaba 3.85. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 75% | Cuiaba 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 46% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG RB Bragantino 1.33 / Cuiaba 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.317 / def 1.270 | Cuiaba attack 0.673 / def 1.095 | league avg home 0.920 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cuiaba xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 7 July 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 46% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both RB Bragantino and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 6W-3D-0L in 9 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.54
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Cuiaba xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.91 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 5W 2D 0L from 7 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for RB Bragantino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 3L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cuiaba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Bragantino by 1.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 0W 3D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Cuiaba travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Cuiaba in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Early Season
Cuiaba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 games (2.43 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Cuiaba away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.67 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
5
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Cuiaba have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 67%, Cuiaba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (RB Bragantino) and 33% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cuiaba in 67%; RB Bragantino have failed to score in 33% of games; Cuiaba in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 33% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 33% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Cuiaba tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino and Cuiaba finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.33 xG and Cuiaba 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.32 / defence 1.27 against Cuiaba attack 0.67 / defence 1.09, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 46% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 26%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 71%, Cuiaba 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.