RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as RB Bragantino welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 0.70 PPG, Cuiaba 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Cuiaba and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 51% versus Cuiaba 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 44% | Cuiaba 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.29 xG and Cuiaba 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.911 / defence 1.008 | Cuiaba attack 0.721 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.018. Data: 69 RB Bragantino games / 69 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 21%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 4.76. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 60% | Cuiaba 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG RB Bragantino 1.29 / Cuiaba 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.911 / def 1.008 | Cuiaba attack 0.721 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cuiaba xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 49% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both RB Bragantino and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
Record (7 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 4 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.40
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.03
0.74
Cuiaba xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.74 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 25W 21D 23L from 69 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 31L across 69 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.39 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 18W 9D 7L from 34 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 11W 7D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.94 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 25W 21D 23L in their last 69 games (1.39 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 18D 31L in their last 69 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Cuiaba away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.85 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.18 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
5
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Cuiaba have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 50%, Cuiaba 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RB Bragantino) and 35% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 32% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 35% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Cuiaba tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Bragantino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 32, as RB Bragantino and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.29 xG and Cuiaba 0.74 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Cuiaba attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 21%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 44%, Cuiaba 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG, Cuiaba 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.