RB Bragantino 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Bahia meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Bahia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.20 for Bahia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — RB Bragantino register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bahia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 51% versus Bahia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 43% | Bahia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.35 xG and Bahia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.963 / defence 1.052 | Bahia attack 1.100 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.032. Data: 61 RB Bragantino games / 62 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 27% | Bahia 33%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 70% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 27% | Bahia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG RB Bragantino 1.35 / Bahia 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.963 / def 1.052 | Bahia attack 1.100 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bahia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Bahia kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
RB Bragantino 2 - 1 Bahia.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Bahia part of?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 40% chance of winning, Bahia a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RB Bragantino and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Record (5 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 2 | Bahia 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.96) and Bahia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.10x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.74
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.54
1.20
Bahia xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.20 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RB Bragantino come into this having played 61 games, going 24W 17D 20L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.36 PPG from 61 outings (23W 14D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.36 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
RB Bragantino's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.34 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 17D 20L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Bahia have gone 23W 14D 24L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Bahia away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.97 PPG; Bahia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bahia in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bahia have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
5
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Bahia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 48%, Bahia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RB Bragantino) and 52% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bahia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 52% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 52% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Bahia tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bahia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Bahia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Bahia 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.35 xG and Bahia 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Bahia attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 27% | Bahia 33%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 43%, Bahia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.46 PPG, Bahia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.