RB Bragantino 1-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Bragantino host America Mineiro at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Bragantino — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, America Mineiro have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RB Bragantino at 1.40 PPG versus America Mineiro's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RB Bragantino, 0 for America Mineiro and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
America Mineiro in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 56% versus America Mineiro 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 53% | America Mineiro 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.41 xG and America Mineiro 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.116 / defence 1.183 | America Mineiro attack 0.996 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 0.918. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 RB Bragantino games / 34 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 27% | America Mineiro 29%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | America Mineiro 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Bragantino at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 50% | America Mineiro 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 27% | America Mineiro 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG RB Bragantino 1.41 / America Mineiro 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.116 / def 1.183 | America Mineiro attack 0.996 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.978 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.08
America Mineiro xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro kick off?
RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro part of?
RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 44% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both RB Bragantino and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and America Mineiro in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.12) and America Mineiro's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.72
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.49
1.08
America Mineiro xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.08 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 13D 8L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.32 PPG from 34 outings (11W 12D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.53 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RB Bragantino's home form reads 6W 8D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.03 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 13W 13D 8L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or America Mineiro away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.53 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when RB Bragantino won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, America Mineiro have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2023, when America Mineiro 0-2 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and America Mineiro?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 59%, America Mineiro 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RB Bragantino) and 29% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; America Mineiro in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play America Mineiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of RB Bragantino's games and 53% of America Mineiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 29% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and America Mineiro tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and America Mineiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino and America Mineiro finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.41 xG and America Mineiro 1.08 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against America Mineiro attack 1.00 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 27% | America Mineiro 29%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 53%, America Mineiro 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
America Mineiro's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.53 PPG, America Mineiro 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.