Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Bahia at Nubank Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 6W 3D 1L at Nubank Parque — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Nubank Parque than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bahia away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 1.60 PPG, Bahia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palmeiras register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bahia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Palmeiras, 3 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Bahia in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 53% versus Bahia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 52% | Bahia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.65 xG and Bahia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.083 / defence 0.811 | Bahia attack 1.181 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.169. Data: 66 Palmeiras games / 66 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 47% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Bahia 4.35. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 60% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nubank Parque • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 47% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Palmeiras 1.65 / Bahia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.083 / def 0.811 | Bahia attack 1.181 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bahia xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Bahia kick off?
Palmeiras vs Bahia kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Nubank Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Palmeiras vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Nubank Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Bahia part of?
Palmeiras vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 47% chance of winning, Bahia a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Palmeiras and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Record (9 meetings): Palmeiras 5W | Draws 1 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.08) and Bahia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.43
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.77
1.12
Bahia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.12 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 39W 16D 11L from 66 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 18L across 66 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 21W 8D 3L from 32 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 9W 9D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.41 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 39W 16D 11L in their last 66 games (2.02 PPG), while Bahia have gone 29W 19D 18L in their last 66 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Bahia away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.22 PPG; Bahia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bahia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Bahia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 47%, Bahia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Palmeiras) and 53% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bahia in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 56% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Palmeiras's recent games and 53% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Bahia tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bahia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Bahia 1-0 at Nubank Parque, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.65 xG and Bahia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Bahia attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 47% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 52%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.61. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.