Mirassol 3-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mirassol have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sao Paulo's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Mirassol's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mirassol 1W, Sao Paulo 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Mirassol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 64% versus Sao Paulo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 46% | Sao Paulo 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.62 xG and Sao Paulo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.206 / defence 1.007 | Sao Paulo attack 0.903 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.020. Data: 28 Mirassol games / 66 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 54% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 22%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Sao Paulo 4.55. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 70% | Sao Paulo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 54% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Mirassol 1.62 / Sao Paulo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.206 / def 1.007 | Sao Paulo attack 0.903 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sao Paulo xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Mirassol 3 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Mirassol vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Sao Paulo part of?
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 54% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mirassol and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Sao Paulo?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 1W | Draws 0 | Sao Paulo 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Sao Paulo in?
Mirassol (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.21x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.90x) against Mirassol's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.03
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.55
0.93
Sao Paulo xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
23.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.93 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 10D 5L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Mirassol against 1.36 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mirassol's home form reads 9W 5D 0L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.11 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 13W 10D 5L in their last 28 games (1.75 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Sao Paulo away?
Mirassol's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.29 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 3-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Sao Paulo?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sao Paulo 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Sao Paulo?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 79%, Sao Paulo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mirassol) and 36% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Sao Paulo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Mirassol's games and 43% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Mirassol's recent games and 36% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Sao Paulo 3-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.62 xG and Sao Paulo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against Sao Paulo attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 54% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 22%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 46%, Sao Paulo 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.75 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.