Mirassol 3-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mirassol and Santos meet at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 July 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Santos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's away record: 2W 0D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Mirassol — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Santos — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 75% versus Santos 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mirassol 42% | Santos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.45 xG and Santos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.050 / defence 1.155 | Santos attack 0.911 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 0.926. Data: 12 Mirassol games / 13 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 47% | Draw 28% | Santos 25%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Santos 4.00. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Mirassol 80% | Santos 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 47% | Draw 28% | Santos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Mirassol 1.45 / Santos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.050 / def 1.155 | Santos attack 0.911 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.238 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Santos xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Santos kick off?
Mirassol vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Santos?
Mirassol 3 - 0 Santos.
Where is Mirassol vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Santos part of?
Mirassol vs Santos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 47% chance of winning, Santos a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mirassol and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Santos in?
Mirassol (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Santos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.05) and Santos's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.91x) against Mirassol's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.56
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.42
0.97
Santos xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.97 for Santos, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 6D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Mirassol against 1.17 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mirassol's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.92 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Santos in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Santos have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Santos away?
Mirassol's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.20 PPG; Santos away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Santos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 3-0 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mirassol
3
Draws
0
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Santos?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Santos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Santos 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Santos?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 80%, Santos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Mirassol) and 40% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Santos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Santos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Mirassol's games and 40% of Santos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Mirassol's recent games and 40% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Santos tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Santos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Santos 3-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.45 xG and Santos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Santos attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 47% | Draw 28% | Santos 25%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, Santos 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Santos's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.50 PPG, Santos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.