Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to take on Mirassol. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mirassol — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mirassol, 1 for Palmeiras and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mirassol in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 62% versus Palmeiras 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 51% | Palmeiras 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.21 xG and Palmeiras 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.010 / defence 1.281 | Palmeiras attack 1.514 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.145. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.514 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Mirassol games / 62 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 18% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 58%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Palmeiras 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 18% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Mirassol 1.21 / Palmeiras 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.010 / def 1.281 | Palmeiras attack 1.514 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Palmeiras xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Palmeiras kick off?
Mirassol vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Mirassol vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Palmeiras part of?
Mirassol vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 18% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Mirassol and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Palmeiras in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.01) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
18%
5.53
24%
4.25
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.43
2.22
Palmeiras xG
5.53
18%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
11%
9.20
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
2%
50.85
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mirassol and 2.22 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mirassol's recent record stands at 24W 19D 18L from 61 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 38W 12D 11L across 61 games — 2.07 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mirassol heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 17W 10D 4L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 18W 5D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mirassol are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.80 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 24W 19D 18L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 38W 12D 11L in their last 61 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Palmeiras away?
Mirassol's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.97 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mirassol and Palmeiras runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mirassol's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mirassol
2
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Palmeiras?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Palmeiras have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mirassol at 71%, Palmeiras at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Mirassol and 64% for Palmeiras. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Mirassol's games and 61% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Mirassol's matches and 64% of Palmeiras's.
Do Mirassol and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Palmeiras finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.21 xG and Palmeiras 2.22 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.01 / defence 1.28 against Palmeiras attack 1.51 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 18% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 58%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 51%, Palmeiras 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.