Mirassol 2-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Internacional at José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mirassol — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mirassol's home record at José Maria de Campos Maia: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mirassol are significantly better at José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Internacional away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Mirassol) versus 1.10 (Internacional). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mirassol register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Internacional in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mirassol, 0 for Internacional and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Mirassol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mirassol in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mirassol 62% and Internacional 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 48% | Internacional 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.50 xG and Internacional 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.023 / defence 1.158 | Internacional attack 0.872 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.156. Data: 68 Mirassol games / 68 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 43% | Draw 30% | Internacional 27%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Internacional 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 80% | Internacional 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 43% | Draw 30% | Internacional 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Mirassol 1.50 / Internacional 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.023 / def 1.158 | Internacional attack 0.872 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Internacional xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Internacional kick off?
Mirassol vs Internacional kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Internacional?
Mirassol 2 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Mirassol vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Internacional part of?
Mirassol vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 43% chance of winning, Internacional a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mirassol and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Internacional?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 2W | Draws 1 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Internacional in?
Mirassol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Internacional (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.31
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.67
1.17
Internacional xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.17 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mirassol's recent record stands at 26W 22D 20L from 68 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Internacional, meanwhile, have gone 18W 22D 28L across 68 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mirassol on 1.47 PPG, Internacional on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 18W 12D 4L from 34 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Internacional's away record stands at 6W 11D 17L across 34 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.13 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Internacional in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Internacional in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 26W 22D 20L in their last 68 games (1.47 PPG), while Internacional have gone 18W 22D 28L in their last 68 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Internacional away?
Mirassol's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.94 PPG; Internacional away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Mirassol go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mirassol's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Internacional?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 3, Internacional have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Mirassol 2-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Internacional?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mirassol at 71%, Internacional at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 47% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Internacional in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Internacional?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Mirassol's games and 62% of Internacional's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 47% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Internacional tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Internacional in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Internacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Internacional 2-0 at José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.50 xG and Internacional 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Internacional landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Internacional attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 43% | Draw 30% | Internacional 27%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 48%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Internacional's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.47 PPG, Internacional 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.