Mirassol 1-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mirassol at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Bahia make the trip to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to face Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.

Form

Mirassol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.

Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Bahia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bahia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mirassol, 0 for Bahia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 5–1 with Mirassol winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Mirassol — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Bahia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Bahia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Bahia 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.47 xG and Bahia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.918 / defence 1.105 | Bahia attack 0.978 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.031. Data: 47 Mirassol games / 47 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mirassol 45% | Draw 27% | Bahia 28%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 3.57. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 60% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.

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