Juventude 0-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventude face Sao Paulo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena BRB Mané Garrincha plays host to Juventude versus Sao Paulo in Serie A (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Juventude's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Juventude have posted 5W 3D 0L from their last 8 home games — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Juventude are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sao Paulo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sao Paulo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sao Paulo edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2022, ended Juventude 1–2 Sao Paulo — a Sao Paulo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 67% and Sao Paulo 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 40% | Sao Paulo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.59 xG and Sao Paulo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.035 / defence 0.815 | Sao Paulo attack 1.114 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.041. Data: built from Juventude's last 15 games and Sao Paulo's last 55.
Result probabilities: Juventude 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 22%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.93 | Draw 3.77 | Sao Paulo 4.61. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Juventude 50% (last 8 home games) | Sao Paulo 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 18 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Juventude 1.59 / Sao Paulo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.035 / def 0.815 | Sao Paulo attack 1.114 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Juventude (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sao Paulo xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventude vs Sao Paulo FAQs
What time does Juventude vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Juventude vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Juventude 0 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Juventude vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Juventude vs Sao Paulo part of?
Juventude vs Sao Paulo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 18) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 52% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juventude and Sao Paulo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Juventude vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juventude's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (1.11x) against Juventude's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Juventude's last 15 games and Sao Paulo's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.77
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.54
0.94
Sao Paulo xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
22.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventude vs Sao Paulo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juventude and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Juventude and 0.94 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 5W 5D 5L from 15 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 3L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sao Paulo by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 4W 3D 0L from their last 7 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sao Paulo's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across their last 7 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.60 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
Juventude (Home) vs Sao Paulo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventude
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Juventude vs Sao Paulo Form FAQs
What form are Juventude and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Sao Paulo away?
Juventude's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.14 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Juventude or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sao Paulo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
3
Draws
4
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventude vs Sao Paulo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventude have won 1, Sao Paulo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Sao Paulo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Sao Paulo 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 57%, Sao Paulo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Juventude) and 86% (Sao Paulo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventude vs Sao Paulo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventude and Sao Paulo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Juventude's games and 71% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Juventude and Sao Paulo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Juventude's matches and 86% of Sao Paulo's.
Do Juventude and Sao Paulo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Juventude's recent matches and 86% of Sao Paulo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juventude's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 18, as Juventude and Sao Paulo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.59 xG and Sao Paulo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.03 / defence 0.81 against Sao Paulo attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 22%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 40%, Sao Paulo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sao Paulo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.