Juventude 0-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Palmeiras — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Juventude) versus 1.70 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventude, 1 for Palmeiras and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Palmeiras 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 34% | Palmeiras 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.887 / defence 1.086 | Palmeiras attack 0.990 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 0.881. Data: 44 Juventude games / 44 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 35% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 33%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 40% | Palmeiras 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 35% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Juventude 0.98 / Palmeiras 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.887 / def 1.086 | Palmeiras attack 0.990 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.359 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Juventude (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Palmeiras xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Palmeiras kick off?
Juventude vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Juventude 0 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Juventude vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Palmeiras part of?
Juventude vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 35% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Juventude and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Juventude and Palmeiras in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.89x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.17
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.92
0.95
Palmeiras xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Juventude and 0.95 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 20W 6D 12L from 38 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Palmeiras away?
Juventude's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.74 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Juventude or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Palmeiras runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Palmeiras?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Palmeiras have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 37%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Juventude) and 53% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventude's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventude's recent games and 53% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Juventude 0-3 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Palmeiras outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Palmeiras attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 35% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 33%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 34%, Palmeiras 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.