Juventude 1-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 39%, yet in-form Juventude provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Chapecoense-sc meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 July 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventude have posted 3W 1D 2L at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chapecoense-sc have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's away record: 0W 3D 3L from 6 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Juventude's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 25% versus Chapecoense-sc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 25% | Chapecoense-sc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.11 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.868 / defence 1.111 | Chapecoense-sc attack 1.015 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 1.088. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Juventude games / 12 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 33% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 39%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Chapecoense-sc 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juventude (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 17% | Chapecoense-sc 100%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 33% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Juventude 1.11 / Chapecoense-sc 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.868 / def 1.111 | Chapecoense-sc attack 1.015 / def 1.409 | league avg home 0.911 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Chapecoense-sc xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc?
Juventude 1 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 33% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juventude and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Chapecoense-sc in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juventude's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (1.01x) against Juventude's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.57
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.34
1.23
Chapecoense-sc xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Juventude and 1.23 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc's form line: 0W 4D 8L from 12 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventude are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.92 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Chapecoense-sc in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 8L in their last 12 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Juventude's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.67 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Juventude or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Juventude
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 14 November 2021, when Chapecoense-sc 0-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Chapecoense-sc?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 17%, Chapecoense-sc 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Juventude) and 67% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Juventude have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 17% of Juventude's games and 100% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 67% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.11 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.23 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chapecoense-sc landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Chapecoense-sc attack 1.01 / defence 1.41, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 33% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 39%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Juventude win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 25%, Chapecoense-sc 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventude arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.