Juventude 0-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as Juventude welcome America Mineiro to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juventude at 0.60 PPG versus America Mineiro's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Juventude have won 0, America Mineiro 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with America Mineiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 52% versus America Mineiro 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 40% | America Mineiro 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.96 xG and America Mineiro 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.785 / defence 1.143 | America Mineiro attack 0.715 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.935. Juventude's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Juventude games / 58 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 39% | Draw 33% | America Mineiro 28%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | America Mineiro 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 50% | America Mineiro 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 39% | Draw 33% | America Mineiro 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Juventude 0.96 / America Mineiro 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.785 / def 1.143 | America Mineiro attack 0.715 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: Juventude (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.77
America Mineiro xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs America Mineiro kick off?
Juventude vs America Mineiro kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Juventude 0 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Juventude vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs America Mineiro part of?
Juventude vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 39% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Juventude and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and America Mineiro?
Record (3 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 2 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Juventude and America Mineiro in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventude's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
39%
2.58
33%
2.99
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.73
0.77
America Mineiro xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 13.6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Juventude and 0.77 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventude's recent record stands at 14W 20D 24L from 58 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 21L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.07 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 11W 9D 9L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
America Mineiro's away record stands at 6W 9D 14L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of America Mineiro's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.98 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or America Mineiro away?
Juventude's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.45 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and America Mineiro runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: America Mineiro have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when America Mineiro won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Juventude
2
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, America Mineiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2022, when Juventude 0-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 41%, America Mineiro 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Juventude and 28% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; America Mineiro in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Juventude's recent matches and 41% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Juventude's recent games and 28% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Juventude 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Juventude 0-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.96 xG and America Mineiro 0.77 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventude fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.79 / defence 1.14 against America Mineiro attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 39% | Draw 33% | America Mineiro 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual America Mineiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 40%, America Mineiro 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.07 PPG, America Mineiro 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. America Mineiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.