Internacional 0-0 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Pinheiro Borda plays host to Internacional versus Avai in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Internacional have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Internacional's home record at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 2.07 xG and Avai 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.100 / defence 1.076 | Avai attack 0.755 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 0.929. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Internacional games / 3 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 68% | Draw 20% | Avai 13%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Avai 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 68% | Draw 20% | Avai 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Internacional 2.07 / Avai 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.100 / def 1.076 | Avai attack 0.755 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.425 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Internacional (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Avai xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Avai kick off?
Internacional vs Avai kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Avai?
Internacional 0 - 0 Avai.
Where is Internacional vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Avai part of?
Internacional vs Avai is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 68% chance of winning, Avai a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Internacional and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Avai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Internacional and Avai in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Internacional home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Internacional's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Avai's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.76x) against Internacional's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.12
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.82
0.75
Avai xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
2%
62.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Internacional and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Internacional and 0.75 for Avai, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Pre-Season
Avai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Internacional
1
Draws
0
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Internacional have won 1, Avai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2022, when Avai 0-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Avai?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 4, as Internacional and Avai drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 2.07 xG and Avai 0.75 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Avai attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 68% | Draw 20% | Avai 13%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.