Gremio 1-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 48%, yet in-form Vasco DA Gama provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena Condá to take on Gremio. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio at Arena Condá this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Condá. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena Condá than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Vasco DA Gama are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gremio have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 51% versus Vasco DA Gama 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 54% | Vasco DA Gama 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.32 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.899 / defence 1.023 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.782 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.047. Data: 55 Gremio games / 56 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 48% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 24%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Vasco DA Gama 4.17. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 20% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 48% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Gremio 1.32 / Vasco DA Gama 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.899 / def 1.023 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.782 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Gremio (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Vasco DA Gama xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Gremio 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 48% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gremio and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (3 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 2W.
What form are Gremio and Vasco DA Gama in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gremio's attack at 0.90x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.46
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.16
0.84
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
6%
15.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gremio and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gremio and 0.84 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 55 games, going 25W 8D 22L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (18W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.51 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 17W 3D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.70 points per game from 27 outings (4W 7D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.07 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 25W 8D 22L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 18W 11D 26L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Gremio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gremio's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 41%, Vasco DA Gama 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gremio) and 33% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Gremio's recent matches and 52% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gremio's recent games and 33% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.32 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.84 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 48% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 24%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 54%, Vasco DA Gama 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.51 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.