Gremio 0-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gremio at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Bahia meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bahia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Gremio's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Gremio, 2 for Bahia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 50% versus Bahia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 53% | Bahia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.34 xG and Bahia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.877 / defence 0.956 | Bahia attack 1.033 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.049. Data: 58 Gremio games / 60 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 43% | Draw 28% | Bahia 29%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 20% | Bahia 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 43% | Draw 28% | Bahia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Gremio 1.34 / Bahia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.877 / def 0.956 | Bahia attack 1.033 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Gremio (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bahia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Gremio vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Gremio 0 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Gremio vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Gremio vs Bahia part of?
Gremio vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 43% chance of winning, Bahia a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gremio and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
Record (5 meetings): Gremio 3W | Draws 0 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Gremio and Bahia in?
Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gremio's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.03x) against Gremio's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 58/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.59
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
Bahia xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gremio and 1.04 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 28W 8D 22L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia's form line: 22W 13D 23L from 58 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Gremio against 1.36 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 2.07 PPG from 29 outings (19W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 6W 7D 16L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.36 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Bahia in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 28W 8D 22L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Bahia have gone 22W 13D 23L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Bahia away?
Gremio's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.07 PPG; Bahia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 38%, Bahia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gremio) and 52% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bahia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gremio's recent matches and 52% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gremio's recent games and 52% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Bahia tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bahia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Gremio 0-2 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.34 xG and Bahia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bahia outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Bahia attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 43% | Draw 28% | Bahia 29%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 53%, Bahia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.59 PPG, Bahia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.