Gremio 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Bahia meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Bahia (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Gremio, 1.60 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Gremio, 1 for Bahia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 61% versus Bahia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 64% | Bahia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 2.33 xG and Bahia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.252 / defence 1.008 | Bahia attack 0.939 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.114. Gremio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Gremio games / 31 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 65% | Draw 19% | Bahia 15%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Bahia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Gremio 50% | Bahia 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 65% | Draw 19% | Bahia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Gremio 2.33 / Bahia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.252 / def 1.008 | Bahia attack 0.939 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Gremio (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bahia xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Gremio vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Gremio 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Gremio vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Bahia part of?
Gremio vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 65% chance of winning, Bahia a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gremio and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
Record (3 meetings): Gremio 2W | Draws 0 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Gremio and Bahia in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gremio's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.94x) against Gremio's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.18
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.38
1.05
Bahia xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
10%
10.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
1%
67.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Gremio and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Gremio and 1.05 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 16W 5D 10L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 10W 7D 14L from 31 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Gremio are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Bahia in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 16W 5D 10L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Bahia have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Bahia away?
Gremio's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.33 PPG; Bahia away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 53%, Bahia 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gremio) and 40% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bahia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gremio's recent matches and 27% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Gremio's recent games and 40% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Bahia tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bahia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Bahia 1-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 2.33 xG and Bahia 1.05 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Bahia attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 65% | Draw 19% | Bahia 15%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 64%, Bahia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Bahia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.