Goias 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Juventude travel to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to take on Goias. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 November 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Goias stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Goias's home record at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Goias are significantly better at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro than their overall form suggests.
Juventude — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juventude's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Goias carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Goias, 0 for Juventude and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Goias trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Juventude trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 60% versus Juventude 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 43% | Juventude 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.44 xG and Juventude 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.772 / defence 1.092 | Juventude attack 0.675 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.008. Goias's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Goias's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Goias games / 73 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 54% | Draw 27% | Juventude 19%. Fair-value odds: Goias 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Juventude 5.26. Goias hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Goias as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Goias offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Goias 60% | Juventude 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 54% | Draw 27% | Juventude 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Goias 1.44 / Juventude 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.772 / def 1.092 | Juventude attack 0.675 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Goias (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Goias xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Juventude xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Juventude kick off?
Goias vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Juventude?
Goias 1 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Goias vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Juventude part of?
Goias vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 54% chance of winning, Juventude a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Goias and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Goias and Juventude in?
Goias (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.77x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Goias's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.71
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Goias xG
Total xG
2.18
0.74
Juventude xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Goias and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Goias and 0.74 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Goias have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 10W 13D 12L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Juventude's form line: 3W 12D 20L from 35 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Goias are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Goias have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L).
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 4D 12L from 17 away games — 0.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Goias come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Goias are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.74 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Goias have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Juventude in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 10W 13D 12L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 12D 20L in their last 35 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Juventude away?
Goias's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.35 PPG; Juventude away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Goias and Juventude runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Goias
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Juventude?
From 2 meetings on record, Goias have won 1, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2022, when Goias 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Juventude?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Goias see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 65%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Goias) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Goias's games and 47% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Goias's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Juventude tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Juventude in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Goias edge out Juventude 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Juventude 1-0 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.44 xG and Juventude 0.74 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Juventude attack 0.68 / defence 1.43, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 54% | Draw 27% | Juventude 19%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 43%, Juventude 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Goias arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Goias (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.