Fortaleza EC 1-1 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Goias at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 June 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.04 xG and Goias 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.688 / defence 1.000 | Goias attack 0.906 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 0.994. Fortaleza EC's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Fortaleza EC games / 9 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 38% | Draw 32% | Goias 31%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Goias 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 38% | Draw 32% | Goias 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.04 / Goias 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.688 / def 1.000 | Goias attack 0.906 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.284 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Goias xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Goias kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Goias kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 10 June 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Goias?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 1 Goias.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Goias part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Goias is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 38% chance of winning, Goias a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Goias in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fortaleza EC home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.69) and Goias's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Goias's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.16
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.94
0.90
Goias xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.90 for Goias, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Goias?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
Goias
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Goias runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Goias specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
1
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Goias?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Goias have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Goias?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fortaleza EC and Goias share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 10, as Fortaleza EC and Goias drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.04 xG and Goias 0.90 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Goias attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 38% | Draw 32% | Goias 31%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.