Fluminense 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Fluminense against 1.70 for RB Bragantino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fluminense, 0 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 41% versus RB Bragantino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 36% | RB Bragantino 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.91 xG and RB Bragantino 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.304 / defence 1.084 | RB Bragantino attack 1.344 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.962. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. RB Bragantino have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Fluminense games / 56 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 22% | RB Bragantino 28%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | RB Bragantino 3.57. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 40% | RB Bragantino 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 22% | RB Bragantino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Fluminense 1.91 / RB Bragantino 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.304 / def 1.084 | RB Bragantino attack 1.344 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.40
RB Bragantino xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Fluminense 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira.
What competition is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 49% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fluminense and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.34x) against Fluminense's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
49%
2.02
22%
4.48
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.31
1.40
RB Bragantino xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
4%
23.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fluminense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.40 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 24W 13D 19L from 56 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 15L across 56 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Fluminense against 1.48 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 24W 13D 19L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 21W 20D 15L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fluminense's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.89 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Fluminense or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 44%, RB Bragantino 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fluminense) and 52% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fluminense have failed to score in 26% of games; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Fluminense's recent matches and 56% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Fluminense's recent games and 52% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.91 xG and RB Bragantino 1.40 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against RB Bragantino attack 1.34 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 49% | Draw 22% | RB Bragantino 28%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, RB Bragantino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.52 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.