Fluminense 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Juventude (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Fluminense. A 1.10 PPG lead over Juventude (1.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2022, ended 4–0 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 42% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.31 xG and Juventude 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.289 / defence 1.148 | Juventude attack 0.847 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.108. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Fluminense games / 4 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 64% | Draw 20% | Juventude 16%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Juventude 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 60% | Juventude 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 64% | Draw 20% | Juventude 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Fluminense 2.31 / Juventude 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.289 / def 1.148 | Juventude attack 0.847 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Juventude xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Juventude kick off?
Fluminense vs Juventude kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Juventude?
Fluminense 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Fluminense vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Juventude part of?
Fluminense vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 64% chance of winning, Juventude a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fluminense and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Juventude?
Record (4 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 1 | Juventude 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Juventude in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.29x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.85x) against Fluminense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 44/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.91
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.38
1.08
Juventude xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
2%
64.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.08 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 0.58 PPG from 38 outings (3W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 13W 4D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.37 points per game from 19 outings (1W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Juventude in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Juventude away?
Fluminense's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.26 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Juventude in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Juventude have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 53%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fluminense) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fluminense's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fluminense's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Juventude tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 7, as Fluminense and Juventude drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.31 xG and Juventude 1.08 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.29 / defence 1.15 against Juventude attack 0.85 / defence 1.47, drawn from 44/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 64% | Draw 20% | Juventude 16%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 42%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.