Fluminense 0-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Fluminense versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Fluminense, 1.30 for Botafogo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fluminense 1W, Botafogo 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 44% versus Botafogo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 49% | Botafogo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.08 xG and Botafogo 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.064 / defence 0.702 | Botafogo attack 0.853 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 0.977. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Fluminense games / 63 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 46% | Draw 36% | Botafogo 18%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.17 | Draw 2.78 | Botafogo 5.56. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | Botafogo 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 46% | Draw 36% | Botafogo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Fluminense 1.08 / Botafogo 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.064 / def 0.702 | Botafogo attack 0.853 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.379 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Botafogo xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Botafogo kick off?
Fluminense vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Botafogo?
Fluminense 0 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Fluminense vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Botafogo part of?
Fluminense vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 46% chance of winning, Botafogo a 18% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Fluminense and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Botafogo?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 1 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Botafogo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (0.85x) against Fluminense's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
46%
2.18
36%
2.80
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.66
0.58
Botafogo xG
2.18
46%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.58 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 63 games, going 33W 12D 18L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.67 PPG from 63 outings (31W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Fluminense against 1.67 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 22W 5D 4L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.58 points per game from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.29 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Botafogo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 33W 12D 18L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 31W 12D 20L in their last 63 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Botafogo away?
Fluminense's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.29 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Botafogo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Botafogo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Fluminense 1-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 52%, Botafogo 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fluminense) and 39% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Botafogo in 32%; Botafogo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Fluminense's recent matches and 39% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fluminense's recent games and 39% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Botafogo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Fluminense 0-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.08 xG and Botafogo 0.58 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Botafogo outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.06 / defence 0.70 against Botafogo attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 46% | Draw 36% | Botafogo 18%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 49%, Botafogo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.76 PPG, Botafogo 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.