Flamengo 3-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Flamengo welcome Santos to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 October 2022 at 01:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Santos — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 2, Santos 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Santos trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 49% versus Santos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Santos 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.30 xG and Santos 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.329 / defence 0.784 | Santos attack 0.838 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 0.955. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Santos's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Flamengo games / 71 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 29% | Santos 18%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Santos 5.56. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Santos's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Santos 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Oct 2022, 01:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 29% | Santos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Flamengo 1.30 / Santos 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.329 / def 0.784 | Santos attack 0.838 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.293 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Santos xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Santos kick off?
Flamengo vs Santos kicked off at 01:45 on Wednesday 26 October 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Flamengo 3 - 2 Santos.
Where is Flamengo vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Santos part of?
Flamengo vs Santos is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 53% chance of winning, Santos a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Flamengo and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 0 | Santos 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Santos in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Santos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.33x the league average against Santos's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.43
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Flamengo xG
Total xG
1.92
0.63
Santos xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.63 for Santos, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 38W 15D 18L from 71 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Santos, meanwhile, have gone 23W 24D 24L across 71 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 23W 4D 8L from 35 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santos's away record stands at 6W 14D 15L across 35 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.03 scored and 0.99 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Santos in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Santos in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 38W 15D 18L in their last 71 games (1.82 PPG), while Santos have gone 23W 24D 24L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Santos away?
Flamengo's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.09 PPG; Santos away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Santos in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Santos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Flamengo
0
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Santos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Flamengo 3-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Santos?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Santos see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 34%, Santos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Flamengo) and 34% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Santos in 31%; Santos in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Flamengo's recent matches and 40% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Flamengo's recent games and 34% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Santos tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Santos in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Santos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Santos 3-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.30 xG and Santos 0.63 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.33 / defence 0.78 against Santos attack 0.84 / defence 0.75, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 53% | Draw 29% | Santos 18%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Santos 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.