Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio do Maracanã, Flamengo have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Flamengo 2.30 PPG, Fluminense 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Flamengo, 3 for Fluminense and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Fluminense trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 48% versus Fluminense 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Fluminense 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.00 xG and Fluminense 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.231 / defence 0.794 | Fluminense attack 1.200 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.154. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Flamengo games / 67 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 56% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 18%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Fluminense 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Fluminense 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 56% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Flamengo 2.00 / Fluminense 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.231 / def 0.794 | Fluminense attack 1.200 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Fluminense xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fluminense kick off?
Flamengo vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Flamengo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fluminense part of?
Flamengo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 56% chance of winning, Fluminense a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
Record (9 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.23x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.94
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Flamengo xG
Total xG
3.10
1.10
Fluminense xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
40.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.10 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 41W 17D 9L from 67 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 33W 16D 18L across 67 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 2.09 PPG, Fluminense on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 24W 8D 1L from 33 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 7W 12D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 2.01 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.46 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 41W 17D 9L in their last 67 games (2.09 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 33W 16D 18L in their last 67 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fluminense away?
Flamengo's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.42 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Flamengo's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Fluminense?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 36%, Fluminense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Flamengo) and 39% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Fluminense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Flamengo's recent matches and 58% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Flamengo's recent games and 39% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.00 xG and Fluminense 1.10 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Fluminense attack 1.20 / defence 1.11, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 56% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 18%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Fluminense 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 2.09 PPG, Fluminense 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.