Cuiaba 0-2 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Internacional make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Internacional have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Internacional have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.70 for Internacional. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cuiaba 2W, Internacional 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Internacional — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 41% versus Internacional 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 33% | Internacional 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.21 xG and Internacional 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.896 / defence 0.981 | Internacional attack 0.806 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.143. Data: 73 Cuiaba games / 73 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 43% | Draw 29% | Internacional 28%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Internacional 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 40% | Internacional 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 43% | Draw 29% | Internacional 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cuiaba 1.21 / Internacional 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.896 / def 0.981 | Internacional attack 0.806 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Internacional xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Internacional kick off?
Cuiaba vs Internacional kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Cuiaba 0 - 2 Internacional.
Where is Cuiaba vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Internacional part of?
Cuiaba vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 43% chance of winning, Internacional a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cuiaba and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Record (5 meetings): Cuiaba 2W | Draws 2 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Internacional (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.90x the league average against Internacional's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.81x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.40
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.11
0.90
Internacional xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.90 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 23W 20D 30L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 32W 23D 18L from 73 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (11W 14D 11L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 11W 13D 12L from 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.33 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 23W 20D 30L in their last 73 games (1.22 PPG), while Internacional have gone 32W 23D 18L in their last 73 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Internacional away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.31 PPG; Internacional away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Internacional in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Internacional have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2024, when Internacional 3-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Internacional 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cuiaba and 33% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Internacional in 31%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 31% of games; Internacional in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 47% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cuiaba's recent games and 33% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Internacional cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Cuiaba 0-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.21 xG and Internacional 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Internacional outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Internacional attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 43% | Draw 29% | Internacional 28%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Internacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 33%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.