Cuiaba 0-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Cuiaba welcome Atletico Goianiense to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Atletico Goianiense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Atletico Goianiense's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Cuiaba) versus 1.40 (Atletico Goianiense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cuiaba, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 34% versus Atletico Goianiense 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Atletico Goianiense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.10 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.994 / defence 0.976 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.892 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.116. Data: 48 Cuiaba games / 10 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 31%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico Goianiense 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 30% | Atletico Goianiense 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Cuiaba 1.10 / Atletico Goianiense 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.994 / def 0.976 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.892 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Atletico Goianiense xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 22 June 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 38% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (4 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 3 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.19
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.07
0.97
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.97 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 14W 9D 15L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 18L across 38 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. Atletico Goianiense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.34 PPG, Atletico Goianiense on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 2W 7D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 1.03 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Goianiense in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.26 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
5
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Atletico Goianiense 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cuiaba) and 42% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 37% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Atletico Goianiense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Cuiaba's games and 68% of Atletico Goianiense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cuiaba's recent games and 42% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 11, as Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.10 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.97 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Atletico Goianiense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 31%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Atletico Goianiense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.34 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.