Cruzeiro 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees RB Bragantino travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on Cruzeiro. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cruzeiro — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cruzeiro 1.60 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cruzeiro register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, RB Bragantino in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cruzeiro, 0 for RB Bragantino and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
RB Bragantino trading profile (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 32% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 34% | RB Bragantino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.90 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.387 / defence 0.802 | RB Bragantino attack 0.984 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.073. Cruzeiro carry an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Cruzeiro games / 53 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 15%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cruzeiro 70% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Cruzeiro 1.90 / RB Bragantino 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.387 / def 0.802 | RB Bragantino attack 0.984 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Cruzeiro 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino part of?
Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 61% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Cruzeiro 1W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.39) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.05
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.75
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
45.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.85 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cruzeiro's recent record stands at 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 15L across 53 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.38 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cruzeiro have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; RB Bragantino in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or RB Bragantino away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.52 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cruzeiro have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Cruzeiro won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
1
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 4, RB Bragantino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Cruzeiro 2-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 40%, RB Bragantino 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Cruzeiro and 32% for RB Bragantino.
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 36% of games; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 44% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 32% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.90 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.39 / defence 0.80 against RB Bragantino attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 15%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 34%, RB Bragantino 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.38 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.