Cruzeiro 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto to face Cruzeiro in Serie A (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time.
Current Form
Cruzeiro's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cruzeiro at home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Palmeiras have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palmeiras are 1.00 PPG clear of Cruzeiro over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Palmeiras and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Cruzeiro 0–1 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cruzeiro half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 27% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 30% | Palmeiras 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cruzeiro surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.06 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.772 / defence 1.048 | Palmeiras attack 1.196 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.118. Cruzeiro's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 37 games and Palmeiras's last 75.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 29% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 45%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 3.49 | Draw 3.74 | Palmeiras 2.24. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cruzeiro 50% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 29% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Cruzeiro 1.06 / Palmeiras 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.772 / def 1.048 | Palmeiras attack 1.196 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras part of?
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 29% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cruzeiro and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 0.77x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.20x) against Cruzeiro's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Cruzeiro's last 37 games and Palmeiras's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
29%
3.49
27%
3.74
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.46
1.40
Palmeiras xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.40 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cruzeiro come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 13D 13L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.86 PPG from 37 outings (20W 9D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cruzeiro's home form reads 4W 7D 7L across their last 18 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 18 away games (6W 7D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palmeiras's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Cruzeiro are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.70 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
Cruzeiro (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 9D 8L in their last 37 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.06 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
3
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Cruzeiro have won 1, Palmeiras have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 33%, Palmeiras 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Cruzeiro) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palmeiras in 39%; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 50% of games; Palmeiras in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cruzeiro and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 44% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 78% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 38, as Cruzeiro and Palmeiras drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.06 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Palmeiras attack 1.20 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 29% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 45%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 30%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.