Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cruzeiro face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cruzeiro welcome Bahia to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Friday 18 April 2025 at 02:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cruzeiro have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cruzeiro have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bahia — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cruzeiro 0.90 PPG, Bahia 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cruzeiro's games and 70% of Bahia's (from Cruzeiro's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Cruzeiro have won 1, Bahia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Cruzeiro 1–1 Bahia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bahia trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 37% versus Bahia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 36% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.64 xG and Bahia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.009 / defence 1.026 | Bahia attack 1.166 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 0.917. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 41 games and Bahia's last 41.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.10 | Draw 3.41 | Bahia 4.33. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cruzeiro 60% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Cruzeiro 1.64 / Bahia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.009 / def 1.026 | Bahia attack 1.166 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.443 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bahia xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Cruzeiro vs Bahia kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro 3 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Bahia part of?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 48% chance of winning, Bahia a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cruzeiro and Bahia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cruzeiro vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cruzeiro's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cruzeiro's last 41 games and Bahia's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.41
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.73
1.10
Bahia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
4%
22.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.10 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 25W 24D 27L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 27W 16D 33L from 76 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.30 PPG, Bahia on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 38 home games (14W 13D 11L).
On the road, Bahia have gone 8W 8D 22L from their last 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
Cruzeiro (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia Form FAQs
What form are Cruzeiro and Bahia in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 25W 24D 27L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 16D 33L in their last 76 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Bahia away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.45 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bahia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from June 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cruzeiro have won 5, Bahia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 47%, Bahia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cruzeiro) and 58% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 34% of games; Bahia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cruzeiro and Bahia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 58% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cruzeiro and Bahia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 58% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Bahia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 71% of Bahia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3-0 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.64 xG and Bahia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 36%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG, Bahia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.