Coritiba 2-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 July 2023, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fluminense — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Fluminense's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Coritiba's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coritiba, 1 for Fluminense and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–5 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 53% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 51% | Fluminense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.13 xG and Fluminense 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.841 / defence 1.128 | Fluminense attack 1.076 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 0.967. Data: 53 Coritiba games / 53 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 36%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Fluminense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 60% | Fluminense 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jul 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Coritiba 1.13 / Fluminense 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.841 / def 1.128 | Fluminense attack 1.076 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.305 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Fluminense xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Fluminense kick off?
Coritiba vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 24 July 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Coritiba 2 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Coritiba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Fluminense part of?
Coritiba vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 34% chance of winning, Fluminense a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coritiba and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Fluminense in?
Coritiba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
34%
2.98
31%
3.24
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.31
1.17
Fluminense xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.17 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coritiba come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 11D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.79 PPG from 53 outings (28W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coritiba's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.58 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 14W 11D 28L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 28W 11D 14L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Fluminense away?
Coritiba's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.65 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Fluminense runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Fluminense won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Fluminense?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Fluminense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 46%, Fluminense 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Coritiba) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fluminense in 38%; Fluminense in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Coritiba's recent matches and 35% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Coritiba's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Fluminense tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Fluminense 2-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.13 xG and Fluminense 1.17 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Fluminense attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 34% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 36%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 51%, Fluminense 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Coritiba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.