Coritiba 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to face Coritiba in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Flamengo's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Coritiba, 1.70 for Flamengo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coritiba lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 46% versus Flamengo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 46% | Flamengo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.15 xG and Flamengo 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.900 / defence 0.972 | Flamengo attack 1.247 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.012. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Coritiba games / 73 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 38%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Coritiba 50% | Flamengo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Coritiba 1.15 / Flamengo 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.900 / def 0.972 | Flamengo attack 1.247 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Flamengo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Flamengo kick off?
Coritiba vs Flamengo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Coritiba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Flamengo part of?
Coritiba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 34% chance of winning, Flamengo a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coritiba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Flamengo in?
Coritiba (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.25x) against Coritiba's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.60
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.38
1.23
Flamengo xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.23 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coritiba come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 5D 19L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (18W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Coritiba's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.47 points per game from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.63 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Flamengo away?
Coritiba's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.94 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Flamengo?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 41%, Flamengo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Coritiba) and 47% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Coritiba's recent matches and 65% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Coritiba's recent games and 47% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Flamengo 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.15 xG and Flamengo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Flamengo attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 38%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 46%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Coritiba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.