Coritiba vs Flamengo – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Flamengo at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Flamengo encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Flamengo make the trip to to face Coritiba in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form

Coritiba (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at , Coritiba have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Flamengo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Flamengo's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Coritiba, 1.80 for Flamengo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Coritiba have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Flamengo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 5 meetings, Flamengo have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Coritiba's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Flamengo have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 52% versus Flamengo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 48% | Flamengo 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.07 xG and Flamengo 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.917 / defence 1.132 | Flamengo attack 1.484 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Coritiba games / 62 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coritiba 18% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 56%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Flamengo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 70% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.

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