Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Coritiba welcome Botafogo to Estádio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coritiba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coritiba at Estádio Couto Pereira this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Botafogo away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coritiba at 1.20 PPG versus Botafogo's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Coritiba register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Botafogo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 1, Botafogo 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coritiba trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Botafogo trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coritiba 52% and Botafogo 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 55% | Botafogo 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.48 xG and Botafogo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.965 / defence 1.330 | Botafogo attack 0.843 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.135. Data: 29 Coritiba games / 67 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 40% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 30%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Botafogo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 80% | Botafogo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 40% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Coritiba 1.48 / Botafogo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.965 / def 1.330 | Botafogo attack 0.843 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Botafogo xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Botafogo kick off?
Coritiba vs Botafogo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Coritiba vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Botafogo part of?
Coritiba vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 40% chance of winning, Botafogo a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Coritiba and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
Record (5 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 2 | Botafogo 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Botafogo in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Botafogo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.96) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.36
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.75
1.27
Botafogo xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.27 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 10W 8D 11L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 9W 8D 12L from 29 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.31 PPG, Botafogo on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 4W 2D 8L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.45 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Botafogo in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Botafogo away?
Coritiba's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.36 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Botafogo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Coritiba
3
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
From 6 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Botafogo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 64%, Botafogo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Coritiba) and 57% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Coritiba's games and 64% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Coritiba's recent games and 57% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Botafogo tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba and Botafogo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Botafogo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.48 xG and Botafogo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Botafogo attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 40% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 30%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 55%, Botafogo 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.31 PPG, Botafogo 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.