Coritiba 0-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 38%, yet in-form Atletico-MG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coritiba vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Atletico-MG at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Atletico-MG — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico-MG's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Atletico-MG's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Coritiba's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Coritiba, 0 for Atletico-MG and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 52% versus Atletico-MG 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 52% | Atletico-MG 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.26 xG and Atletico-MG 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.926 / defence 1.185 | Atletico-MG attack 1.065 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 0.934. Data: 21 Coritiba games / 59 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 34%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico-MG 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico-MG (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 50% | Atletico-MG 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Coritiba 1.26 / Atletico-MG 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.926 / def 1.185 | Atletico-MG attack 1.065 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.317 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Atletico-MG xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Coritiba 0 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG part of?
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 38% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Atletico-MG?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico-MG 0W.
What form are Coritiba and Atletico-MG in?
Coritiba (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.93x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.66
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.44
1.18
Atletico-MG xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.18 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 4D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico-MG sit at 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coritiba's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico-MG have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico-MG in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Atletico-MG away?
Coritiba's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.70 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Coritiba's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Atletico-MG?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coritiba 2-0 Atletico-MG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 50%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Coritiba) and 40% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 40%; Atletico-MG in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Coritiba's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Coritiba's recent games and 40% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico-MG defy the odds to beat Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.26 xG and Atletico-MG 1.18 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Atletico-MG attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 38% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 34%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atletico-MG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 52%, Atletico-MG 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.