Botafogo 0-1 Avai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Botafogo welcome Avai to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.52 xG and Avai 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.951 / defence 1.371 | Avai attack 0.794 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 0.988. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Botafogo games / 10 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 46% | Draw 28% | Avai 26%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Avai 3.85. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Monday 13 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 46% | Draw 28% | Avai 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Botafogo 1.52 / Avai 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.951 / def 1.371 | Avai attack 0.794 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.255 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Avai xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Avai kick off?
Botafogo vs Avai kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 13 June 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Avai?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Avai.
Where is Botafogo vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Avai part of?
Botafogo vs Avai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 46% chance of winning, Avai a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Botafogo and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Avai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Avai in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Botafogo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Avai's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Avai's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.54
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.59
1.08
Avai xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.08 for Avai, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Avai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Avai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Avai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Botafogo
0
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 1, Avai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Avai 1-2 Botafogo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Avai defy the odds to beat Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.52 xG and Avai 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.95 / defence 1.37 against Avai attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 46% | Draw 28% | Avai 26%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Avai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.