Botafogo 2-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 24 July 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Botafogo have posted 2W 1D 5L at Estádio Nilton Santos — 0.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico Paranaense are 1.00 PPG clear of Botafogo in recent Serie A fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Atletico Paranaense half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 44% versus Atletico Paranaense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 33% | Atletico Paranaense 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.73 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.646 / defence 1.164 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.041 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.965. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Botafogo games / 56 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 23% | Draw 31% | Atletico Paranaense 46%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico Paranaense 2.17. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 50% | Atletico Paranaense 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 23% | Draw 31% | Atletico Paranaense 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Botafogo 0.73 / Atletico Paranaense 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.646 / def 1.164 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.041 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Atletico Paranaense xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Botafogo 2 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 23% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in?
Botafogo (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.65x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.04x) against Botafogo's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
23%
4.39
31%
3.22
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.90
1.17
Atletico Paranaense xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.13
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 17.6 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo's recent record stands at 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 5L across 18 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Botafogo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Paranaense in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Atletico Paranaense's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 0.88 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 4-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 50%, Atletico Paranaense 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Botafogo) and 38% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 50%; Botafogo have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Botafogo's recent matches and 38% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Botafogo's recent games and 38% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico Paranaense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.73 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.17 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Paranaense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.65 / defence 1.16 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 23% | Draw 31% | Atletico Paranaense 46%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 33%, Atletico Paranaense 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Botafogo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.