Botafogo 0-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Botafogo take on America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host America Mineiro at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. America Mineiro are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Botafogo's 30% rate and America Mineiro's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Botafogo, 0 for America Mineiro and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Botafogo in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
America Mineiro in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 44% versus America Mineiro 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 32% | America Mineiro 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.73 xG and America Mineiro 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.648 / defence 1.027 | America Mineiro attack 0.805 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.919. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.648 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Botafogo games / 63 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 31% | Draw 37% | America Mineiro 33%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | America Mineiro 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.49 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 30% | America Mineiro 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 31% | Draw 37% | America Mineiro 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 27% | xG Botafogo 0.73 / America Mineiro 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.648 / def 1.027 | America Mineiro attack 0.805 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.76
America Mineiro xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs America Mineiro kick off?
Botafogo vs America Mineiro kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Botafogo 0 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Botafogo vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs America Mineiro part of?
Botafogo vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 31% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Botafogo and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Botafogo and America Mineiro in?
Botafogo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (0.65) and America Mineiro's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
37%
2.71
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.49
0.76
America Mineiro xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.64
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 17.2 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.3%.
How many goals are Botafogo and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.76 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 6D 11L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro's form line: 10W 5D 10L from 25 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.20 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 3W 2D 7L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of America Mineiro's season.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or America Mineiro away?
Botafogo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.00 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and America Mineiro runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Botafogo's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
0
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, America Mineiro have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2023, when America Mineiro 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and America Mineiro?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Botafogo 42% BTTS, America Mineiro 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Botafogo and 25% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Botafogo have failed to score in 42% of games; America Mineiro in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Botafogo's recent matches and 25% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Botafogo's recent games and 25% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Botafogo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 26, as Botafogo and America Mineiro drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.73 xG and America Mineiro 0.76 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.65 / defence 1.03 against America Mineiro attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 31% | Draw 37% | America Mineiro 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 32%, America Mineiro 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.20 PPG, America Mineiro 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. America Mineiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.