Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Bahia welcome Cruzeiro to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 5W 2D 3L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cruzeiro's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bahia 1.00 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bahia, 1 for Cruzeiro and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Cruzeiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bahia in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus Cruzeiro 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 50% | Cruzeiro 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.09 xG and Cruzeiro 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.933 / defence 0.750 | Cruzeiro attack 0.658 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.099. Bahia's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bahia games / 47 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 17%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | Cruzeiro 5.88. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Cruzeiro's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Cruzeiro 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 29% | xG Bahia 1.09 / Cruzeiro 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.933 / def 0.750 | Cruzeiro attack 0.658 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Bahia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Cruzeiro xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Bahia 4 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Bahia vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cruzeiro part of?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 48% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 17% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Bahia and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Bahia and Cruzeiro in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Cruzeiro (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.8%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
48%
2.09
35%
2.88
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.63
0.54
Cruzeiro xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.49
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.3 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bahia and 0.54 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia's recent record stands at 12W 8D 18L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 13L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.16 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cruzeiro's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.92 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 29%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Cruzeiro away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Bahia or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Cruzeiro runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 58%, Cruzeiro 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bahia) and 37% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 53%; Cruzeiro in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bahia's recent matches and 21% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bahia's recent games and 37% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bahia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cruzeiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Cruzeiro 4-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.09 xG and Cruzeiro 0.54 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.93 / defence 0.75 against Cruzeiro attack 0.66 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 48% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 17%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Cruzeiro 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.16 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.