Avai 0-3 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avai vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva to take on Avai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Avai stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Avai have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fluminense's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Fluminense's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Avai's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Avai, 1 for Fluminense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Avai in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Fluminense in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 58% versus Fluminense 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 52% | Fluminense 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.29 xG and Fluminense 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 0.857 / defence 1.301 | Fluminense attack 1.113 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 0.925. Data: 31 Avai games / 69 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 35% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 38%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Avai 70% | Fluminense 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 35% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Avai 1.29 / Fluminense 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 0.857 / def 1.301 | Fluminense attack 1.113 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.310 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fluminense xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Fluminense kick off?
Avai vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Fluminense?
Avai 0 - 3 Fluminense.
Where is Avai vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Fluminense part of?
Avai vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 35% chance of winning, Fluminense a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Avai and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Avai 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Avai and Fluminense in?
Avai (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Avai's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Avai's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.73
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Avai xG
Total xG
2.63
1.34
Fluminense xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Avai and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Avai and 1.34 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Avai's recent record stands at 7W 7D 17L from 31 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 10L across 31 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Avai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Avai have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Avai are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.55 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 7W 7D 17L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 15W 6D 10L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Fluminense away?
Avai's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.27 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
0
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Fluminense?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Fluminense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Avai 0-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avai 80%, Fluminense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Avai) and 47% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Fluminense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Avai's games and 47% of Fluminense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Avai's recent games and 47% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avai and Fluminense tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fluminense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Avai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Avai 0-3 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.29 xG and Fluminense 1.34 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Avai fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fluminense outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 35% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 38%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 52%, Fluminense 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Avai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.