Avai 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avai and Flamengo meet at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avai's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai's home record at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.89 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Avai against 1.50 for Flamengo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Avai half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 56% versus Flamengo 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 61% | Flamengo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.40 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.052 / defence 1.309 | Flamengo attack 1.014 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.957. Data: 18 Avai games / 56 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 40% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 34%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Flamengo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Avai are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Avai 78% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 40% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Avai 1.40 / Flamengo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.052 / def 1.309 | Flamengo attack 1.014 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Avai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Flamengo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Flamengo kick off?
Avai vs Flamengo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Flamengo?
Avai 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Avai vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Flamengo part of?
Avai vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 40% chance of winning, Flamengo a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Avai and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Flamengo in?
Avai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Avai's attack at 1.05x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.01x) against Avai's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.84
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Avai xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
Flamengo xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Avai and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Avai and 1.27 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Avai come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 3D 9L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Avai against 1.50 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Avai's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Avai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Flamengo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Avai are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.33 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Flamengo away?
Avai's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.89 PPG; Flamengo away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Avai or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avai have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
0
Draws
1
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Flamengo?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, Flamengo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Flamengo 1-2 Avai.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Avai, 56% for Flamengo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Avai) and 44% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Avai's games and 56% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Avai's matches and 44% of Flamengo's.
Do Avai and Flamengo tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Avai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Avai 1-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.40 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.05 / defence 1.31 against Flamengo attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 40% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 34%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 61%, Flamengo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avai 1.17 PPG, Flamengo 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.