Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atletico Goianiense face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Antônio Accioly to take on Atletico Goianiense. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio Antônio Accioly — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Antônio Accioly. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Atletico Goianiense are significantly better at Estádio Antônio Accioly than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Palmeiras, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Atletico Goianiense.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2024, ended 1–3 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Goianiense in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 47% versus Palmeiras 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 41% | Palmeiras 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.75 xG and Palmeiras 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.635 / defence 1.052 | Palmeiras attack 1.233 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.985. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Atletico Goianiense games / 72 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 22% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 49%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.04. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 30% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 22% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.75 / Palmeiras 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.635 / def 1.052 | Palmeiras attack 1.233 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Palmeiras xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Goianiense 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 22% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.64x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
22%
4.59
29%
3.43
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.03
1.28
Palmeiras xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
6%
16.47
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 16.9 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.28 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 6W 8D 20L from 34 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 7L across 34 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Goianiense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 4W 5D 8L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 8W 5D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.65 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 6W 8D 20L in their last 34 games (0.76 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 7D 7L in their last 34 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.00 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2021, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 47%, Palmeiras 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atletico Goianiense) and 35% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 41%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 35% of games; Palmeiras in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 35% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 35% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 35% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Atletico Goianiense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Atletico Goianiense 0-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.75 xG and Palmeiras 1.28 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.64 / defence 1.05 against Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 22% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 49%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 41%, Palmeiras 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.